Republicans are peaking at the right time, poised to win majorities in the House, Senate and pull of some upsets in gubernatorial races. In fact, the polls are looking so good that some are speculating on a FILIBUSTER PROOF 60 or 61 seat majority in 2025.
The last time a party held a Filibuster proof majority was in 1979, when the Democrats held 61 seats. We’ll come back to this but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First we need to look at what’s happening in 2022.
Will Republicans Have 53 Senate Seats?
It is starting to look very likely that Republicans will win back the Senate but can they get to 53 seats? RealClearPolitics has 6 races in the toss-up category. Of those 6 I am leaning towards these candidates:
AZ: Kelly/Masters
Recent polls have show this to be a tie and/or within the margin of error. In fact, the typically-Democrat tilted poll (DataforProgress) shows a tie. This is a very good sign for Blake Masters, who looks like he might pull of the big upset. I’m leaning Masters (R).
GA: Warnock/Walker
This will go to a run-off, most likely, as neither Warnock or Herschel Walker will hit 50%. But a Rasmussen poll that just dropped today show Walker ahead by 5 percentage points. This is the best poll I’ve seen for Walker and not a good sign for Warnock. I think Walker will win in the end, with the caveat that they keep dropping surprise stories about Walker’s misdeeds from past. But so far, this has not slowed down his momentum. I’m leaning Walker (R)
NH: Hassan/Bolduc:
The latest polls show Hassan up 6% and up 3%. I am leaning Hassan here. New Hampshire is not an easy state to flip but if 3% is accurate anything could happen. I’m leaning Hassan (D)
Nevada: Masto/Lexalt
The latest poll by Data For Progress shows Lexalt leading Masto by 1%. As mentioned, typically this poll leans much too heavy toward the Democrat side. But this is Nevada – anything could happen. If forced to pick the winner I’d go with Lexalt. I’m leaning Lexalt (R)
PA: Oz/Fetterman
Most polls show a tie or slight lead for Fetterman. But these were before the debate. Fetterman was a complete train wreck in the debate. Odds Makers are leaning heavy to Oz now. Follow the money. I’m leaning Oz (R)
Plus, this brutal tweet.
WI: Johnson/Barnes
DataForProgress has Johnson up 5. I think it’s safe to say this is going to Johnson. I’m leaning Johnson (R)
With my predictions Republicans would hold 53 seats. Scroll back up and you can see the vast majority of seats opening are Democrats. This is why 60+ seats is a very real possibility. Arizona, Ohio, PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada, Virginia and West Virginia are among the states that Democrats need to play defense. Those are 9 winnable seats. Republicans would only need to win 7 of them and hold their existing seats. Look at the map – it is in fact A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY.
